Stop arguing! Market cycles are different, and the patterns of the past are no longer applicable. The future market is a mistake for both bulls and bears.
It's not wrong to be bearish. Fundamentally speaking, the situation is indeed not very promising. Looking at the number of listed companies in the market, the pressure is indeed great, and there is a lot of excitement about share reductions, and the IPO bubble has not been completely eradicated. Therefore, the market with many loopholes, like a funnel still leaking, makes it difficult for most individual stocks to rise.
It's also not wrong to be bullish. Bulls look at the stock market from a policy perspective, while bears look at it from a fundamental perspective. Bears focus on the present, while bulls focus on the future.
From a policy perspective, the window for large-scale debt scaling has opened. The Federal Reserve has begun a significant interest rate cut, with another 200 basis points expected next year. Whether it's Trump taking office next month or someone else, another 50 basis points cut is anticipated. In addition, the world has entered a new cycle, with global interest rate cuts, which benefit what? Core assets.
In the future market, being bullish or bearish is a mistake. Why? Because the market has grown, and in both bull and bear markets, only the core leaders with growth potential can rise. The rest... are just speculating on cycles. The world has limited growth potential. Global electrification is a major direction, and cyclical speculation will continue to be repetitive. In other industries, old energy is mainly contracting, other industries face bottlenecks and need to be integrated, and war is the process of integration.
So now, there is no need to argue about being bullish or bearish; the key is to find targets and directions that can rise.
Among the main points of being bearish, like myself, what is the focus? It is that global bull markets are driven by ETF funds. The scale of U.S. ETFs exceeds 100 trillion yuan, and China's ETFs have just broken through 30 trillion yuan, but it is a very strong growth rate, increasing by more than one trillion yuan in a year.
Whether it's national support or marketization, in the end, it is driven by ETFs. For example, the Japanese stock market's surge is driven by the continuous purchase of ETF index funds by the Bank of Japan. India's index bull market is also driven by a large amount of global funds buying into the 30 index constituent stocks. I believe this is a view that everyone can agree with, but the downside is that trolls never look at these facts.
Find industries with growth potential and identify their leaders, and that is the opportunity. For the bears, can you short in A-shares? Only institutions have the opportunity to short.
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